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By: Jack of Hearts, Analyst, Bloor Research Published: 15th October 2002 Copyright Bloor Research © 2002 |
Consolidation has become almost a by-word for progress in the IT markets. Where once vendors were selling their over-inflated wares for, arguably, over-inflated prices and reaping the benefits, today they're more likely to be cutting their headcount and buying out the competition for streamlined efficiencies.
In many instances of course, it's a strategy that leads to corporate malaise, stress and a lack of focus. Typically, the level of stress depends on the size of the merger or buy-out - with the larger being the most painful. But, if the buyer has planned carefully and has a large dose of luck on its side consolidation can work to good effect.
This week IDC has cast its beady eyes over the rapidly maturing, and consolidating, IT services industry; in particular the mega mergers/buy-outs of HP/Compaq and IBM/PWC. It makes for fascinating reading. Did you know, for instance, that the addition of PWC to IBM's Global Services will give it a European market penetration of 12.2% and revenues of approximately 1 billion?
It gets better. The PWC acquisition will take IBM GS into previously uncharted waters, most notably Business Process Outsourcing - a rapidly growing market according to many of the services firms. Similarly, in IDC's opinion, the PWC acquisition will help IBM, ...close the loop on the entire IT solution. The argument being that whilst IBM can do much at the moment, the few areas left uncovered will be swept up with PWC - giving IBM the chance to steal further markets from the competition.
Having tackled the real world scenarios, IDC shifts up a gear into speculation mode and attempts to assess the effects of some of the years acquisitions from the rumour mill. If Microsoft, for instance, finally plucked up the courage to buy Accenture what would happen? According to IDC, Microsoft would get itself a top twenty consulting house with combined revenues of more than .5 billion. It wouldn't help Microsoft's relationships with the likes of EDS or Fujitsu, however. It would also screw Accenture's profitable software relationships too - meaning that this one will probably stay in the rumour mill despite the potential boon to Microsoft's enterprise division.
What about HP and Deloitte Consulting, soon to be called Braxton - which we're told isn't a mineral water?. According to IDC this one is less controversial than the Microsoft/Accenture possibility. For starters, if HP doesn't get itself a sizeable consulting arm soon it's going to have difficulty going up against IBM and EDS in the services space. Beyond that though, it's a move that appears to make considerable sense.
Currently ranked at number 3 in the consulting game by IDC the firm argues that the addition of Deloitte Consulting would take it to number two in Europe, behind IBM. It would also enable it to hold its head up high when it says it's a solutions company too. But what about the bottom line? IDC reckons revenues would grow by roughly sh.3 billion. As IDC notes though, HP has probably got enough on its hands right now.
The final scenario that IDC looked at, or at least the last one of any interest to us, was the speculation of a link up between Sun and Fujitsu. Before you say it, yes, we agree, Sun definitely could do with some help, particularly in the services arena. And already the pair work in tandem through a number of Fujitsu's operations - reselling etc. Looking at their services capabilities they could both do with a boost too. IDC rates Fujitsu at 14th in Europe and Sun at 27th. Put the pair together however and suddenly you have a top ten player - in 7th position - with revenues of more than .5 billion. Better still a combined Sun/Fujitsu scenario would give them a 2% share of the global software market, which would put them in fifth place worldwide.
Oh, and let's not forget, both are struggling to make revenues at present. Having said that, and IDC agrees, the merger would be sorely complicated by the two disparate cultures and the sometimes impossibly diverse nature of Fujitsu's business. Still, worth bearing in mind.
That must give you a few things to consider on your way home tonight. Do you think any of these are likely at all? And, with one further point, does it matter that an IT vendor doesn't have a services business? Some would argue not but, with IBM leading the charge to previously good effect, it may not be a case of making sense. It might be the case that you simply have to have to a consulting arm if you're going to be taken seriously. Presumably, as the IT market continues to mature, we'll find out the answer soon enough.
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15th October 2002: 'marto' said:
Where does Unisys fit into all this?
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Published by: IT Analysis Communications Ltd.
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