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By: Rob Bamforth, Principal Analyst, Quocirca Published: 26th November 2008 Copyright Quocirca © 2008 |
A summer "silly season" think tank report in the UK caused a bit of a controversial stir when it suggested that northern cities were "beyond revival" and that for economic reasons there should be a mass migration of the population to London, Cambridge and Oxford. Essentially the northern cities built in the 19th century were centred close to abundant assets such as coal, iron ore and ports for bulk shipping, while the new commercial thrust is now best served by the access to motorways, airport hubs and proximity to Europe found in the south.
Ignoring the thought that these latter things also exist in the north of the UK, and any regional hubris created intentionally or otherwise by the report, the main problem with it is this: for service-centred industries and economies such as the UK, access to transportation and geographic proximity to trading partners as the sole criteria for business location is a bit of a dated 20th century viewpoint, as the produce of knowledge workers requires a very different transport mechanism. In the 21st century it is the ability to connect both supplier and consumer to the IP network that drives business, and thus access to both the core and endpoint reach is fast becoming the critical factor for economic prosperity.
Physical movement—people or produce—is proportionally dependent, by mass and distance, on energy, which, while dropping from recent peaks, has an underlying increasing cost, due to growth in worldwide demand and the difficulty in finding new sources. There is also a risk as well as cost from high energy dependence, and that comes from the uneven geographic distribution of flexible energy sources—coal, oil, gas, uranium. Crudely put, if a country does not have its own supply, it risks being put under difficult negotiating terms from its allies, let alone any other country it may have offended.
This value associated with connectivity applies to smaller regional areas as well as nations, and this was noted in recent Quocirca research into the thinking of small and medium sized businesses (SMBs) across the UK about networks, outlined in the report, Soaring across the regions.
The regional variations highlighted in the report reflected many things, from the impact of decline in traditional industries, to the effects of congestion in concentrated areas of population, or the need for connection where communities are more dispersed. However what becomes clear is that connection to the internet is vital for SMBs, and they are using it to support a growing number of fundamental aspects of their business. It amplifies their capabilities, provides them with more flexibility and extends their reach beyond their current location.
"Location, location, location" is still a valid mantra, but it has moved from proximity and access to raw assets, then customers and partners in the physical world, to a need for access, bandwidth and capacity that allows effective exploitation of the digital world as economies shift from a manufactured product focus to a services focus. These new parameters will influence the future value of business and residential locations in a similar way that other attributes had in the past.
The call to "drive south" for prosperity looks as outdated as 'go west' to strike gold and other raw materials. A better direction might be summed up by the 1970s English mod revival band The Jam with Going underground and getting closer to big pipes, core IP networks, or at least the fastest local loops.
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